
***************************************************
***Western Diplomacy and State Access To Capital***
*****************Brendan J Connell*****************
******************REPLICATION FILE*****************
*********************SEPT 2024*********************
***************************************************

//SET WORKING DIRECTORY
cd "C:\Users\Brendan\Desktop\Connell (II) Replication Package"
graph set window fontface "Times New Roman"
use "Connell (II) Dataset.dta", clear


**TABLE 1: Notable Correlates of Default and Financial Rescues**
pwcorr indefault lnusmeetings_count v2x_polyarchy usally africa ca_gdp debtgdp, sig star(5)
pwcorr imf_entry lnusmeetings_count v2x_polyarchy usally africa ca_gdp debtgdp if indefault==1, sig star(5)
pwcorr g7_bailout lnusmeetings_count v2x_polyarchy usally africa ca_gdp debtgdp if indefault==1, sig star(5)


**TABLE 2: Diplomacy and Sovereign Bond Issuance**

xtset ccode time
global temporal "i.year i.month"
global base_controls "l12.treasury10yr indefault l12.lngdppc l12.ca_gdp l12.gdp_growth xr_change l12.debtgdp l12.imf_inplace l12.v2x_polyarchy l12.leftwing_exec_mo l12.rightwing_exec_mo election_3mo l12.ln_totalustrade l12.natrent l12.usally l12.pctagreeus issue_region"

tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODEL1, title((1))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODEL2, title((2))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODEL3, title((3))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODEL4, title((4))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT l.log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODEL5, title((5))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT l.log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODEL6, title((6))
estout MODEL1 MODEL2 MODEL3 MODEL4 MODEL5 MODEL6, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label,  using "TABLE2.tex", replace style(tex)


**FIGURE 3: Marginal Effects of U.S. Diplomacy Conditional on Global Liquidity**
//Fig 3a
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, dydx(lnusmeetings_count) at(l12.treasury10yr==(1.5(0.5)9)) atmean vsquish
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) addplot(hist treasury10yr, yaxis(2) xscale(range(1.5(1)9)) xlabel(1.5(1)9) yscale(axis(2) range(0 .75) off) lc(white%0) fcolor(gs10%25) recast(rbar)) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ciopts(fc(black%30) lc(white%0)) xtitle(Treasury Rate) title("") ytitle(Marginal Effect of ln(U.S. Meetings)) legend(off) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) yline(0)
//Fig 3b
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, dydx(lnusmeetings_count) at(l12.treasury10yr==(1.5(0.5)9)) atmean vsquish
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) addplot(hist treasury10yr, yaxis(2) xscale(range(1.5(1)9)) xlabel(1.5(1)9) yscale(axis(2) range(0 .75) off) lc(white%0) fcolor(gs10%25) recast(rbar)) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ciopts(fc(black%30) lc(white%0)) xtitle(Treasury Rate) title("") ytitle(Marginal Effect of ln(U.S. Meetings)) legend(off) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) yline(0)
//Fig 3c
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, dydx(lnusmeetings_count) at(l12.treasury10yr==(1.5(0.5)9)) atmean vsquish
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) addplot(hist treasury10yr, yaxis(2) xscale(range(1.5(1)9)) xlabel(1.5(1)9) yscale(axis(2) range(0 .75) off) lc(white%0) fcolor(gs10%25) recast(rbar)) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ciopts(fc(black%30) lc(white%0)) xtitle(Treasury Rate) title("") ytitle(Marginal Effect of ln(U.S. Meetings)) legend(off) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) yline(0)
//Fig 3d
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, dydx(lnusmeetings_count) at(l12.treasury10yr==(1.5(0.5)9)) atmean vsquish
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) addplot(hist treasury10yr, yaxis(2) xscale(range(1.5(1)9)) xlabel(1.5(1)9) yscale(axis(2) range(0 .75) off) lc(white%0) fcolor(gs10%25) recast(rbar)) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ciopts(fc(black%30) lc(white%0)) xtitle(Treasury Rate) title("") ytitle(Marginal Effect of ln(U.S. Meetings)) legend(off) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) yline(0)
//Fig 3e
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT l.log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, dydx(lnusmeetings_count) at(l12.treasury10yr==(1.5(0.5)9)) atmean vsquish
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) addplot(hist treasury10yr, yaxis(2) xscale(range(1.5(1)9)) xlabel(1.5(1)9) yscale(axis(2) range(0 .75) off) lc(white%0) fcolor(gs10%25) recast(rbar)) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ciopts(fc(black%30) lc(white%0)) xtitle(Treasury Rate) title("") ytitle(Marginal Effect of ln(U.S. Meetings)) legend(off) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) yline(0)
//Fig 3f
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT l.log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, dydx(lnusmeetings_count) at(l12.treasury10yr==(1.5(0.5)9)) atmean vsquish
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) addplot(hist treasury10yr, yaxis(2) xscale(range(1.5(1)9)) xlabel(1.5(1)9) yscale(axis(2) range(0 .75) off) lc(white%0) fcolor(gs10%25) recast(rbar)) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ciopts(fc(black%30) lc(white%0)) xtitle(Treasury Rate) title("") ytitle(Marginal Effect of ln(U.S. Meetings)) legend(off) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) yline(0)


**FIGURE 4: Predicted Amounts of Debt Issuance**
//Fig 4a
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==4.55) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)2) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel(0(4)16) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings)) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
//Fig 4b
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==4.55) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)2) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel(0(4)16) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings)) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
//Fig 4c
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==4.55) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)2) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel(0(4)16) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings)) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
//Fig 4d
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==4.55) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)2) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel(0(4)16) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings)) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
//Fig 4e
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT l.log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==4.55) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)2) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel(0(4)16) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings)) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
//Fig 4f
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT l.log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==4.55) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)2) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel(0(4)16) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings)) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)


**FIGURE 5: Effects of U.S. Diplomacy Conditional on Global Liquidity and U.S. Affinity**
//Fig 5a
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr##c.l12.pctagreeus $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2.25) c.l12.pctagreeus==0.125 c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2.25) c.l12.pctagreeus==0.48 c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)2.25) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel() recast(line) recastci(rarea) ciopts(fc(gs10%30) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings)) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) plot2opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(dash)) level(95)
//Fig 5b
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr##c.l12.pctagreeus $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2.25) c.l12.pctagreeus==0.125 c.l12.treasury10yr==(7.34)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2.25) c.l12.pctagreeus==0.48 c.l12.treasury10yr==(7.34)) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)2.25) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel() recast(line) recastci(rarea) ciopts(fc(gs10%30) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings)) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) plot2opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(dash)) level(95)

**FIGURE 6: Marginal Effects of Diplomatic Recognition Conditional on Global Liquidity**
//Fig 6a
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.l12.LOR_us##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, dydx(l12.LOR_us) at(l12.treasury10yr==(1.5(0.5)9)) atmean
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) addplot(hist treasury10yr, yaxis(2) xscale(range(1.5(1)9)) xlabel(1.5(1)9) yscale(axis(2) range(0 .75) off) lc(white%0) fcolor(gs10%25) recast(rbar)) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ciopts(fc(emidblue%30) lc(white%0)) xtitle(Treasury Rate) title("") yscale(range(-20(20)60)) ylabel(-20(20)60) ytitle(Marginal Effect of LOR (US)) legend(off) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) yline(0)
//Fig 6b
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.l12.LOR_uk##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, dydx(l12.LOR_uk) at(l12.treasury10yr==(1.5(0.5)9)) atmean
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) addplot(hist treasury10yr, yaxis(2) xscale(range(1.5(1)9)) xlabel(1.5(1)9) yscale(axis(2) range(0 .75) off) lc(white%0) fcolor(gs10%25) recast(rbar)) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ciopts(fc(emidblue%30) lc(white%0)) xtitle(Treasury Rate) title("") yscale(range(-20(20)60)) ylabel(-20(20)60) ytitle(Marginal Effect of LOR (UK)) legend(off) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) yline(0)
//Fig 6c
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.l12.LOR_chi##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, dydx(l12.LOR_chi) at(l12.treasury10yr==(1.5(0.5)9)) atmean
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) addplot(hist treasury10yr, yaxis(2) xscale(range(1.5(1)9)) xlabel(1.5(1)9) yscale(axis(2) range(0 .75) off) lc(white%0) fcolor(gs10%25) recast(rbar)) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ciopts(fc(emidblue%30) lc(white%0)) xtitle(Treasury Rate) title("") yscale(range(-20(20)60)) ylabel(-20(20)60) ytitle(Marginal Effect of LOR (China)) legend(off) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) yline(0)


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********ONLINE APPENDIX********
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********************TABLES*********************
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**TABLE A1: Summary Statistics and Data Sources**
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal lnusmeetings_count $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
sutex log_totalAmt_UT lnusmeetings_count lag_treasury10yr indefault lag_lngdppc lag_ca_gdp lag_gdp_growth xr_change lag_debtgdp lag_imf_inplace lag_v2x_polyarchy lag_leftwing_exec_mo lag_rightwing_exec_mo election_3mo ln_totalustrade lag_natrent lag_usally lag_pctagreeus issue_region if e(sample), minmax nobs digits(3)


**TABLE A2: Diplomacy and Sovereign Bond Issuance (Controls Reported)**
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA1, title((A1))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA2, title((A2))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA3, title((A3))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA4, title((A4))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT l.log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA5, title((A5))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT l.log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA6, title((A6))
estout MODELA1 MODELA2 MODELA3 MODELA4 MODELA5 MODELA6, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label,  using "TABLEA2.tex", replace style(tex)


**TABLE A3: Alternate Constructions of ln(U.S. Meetings) Variable (Full Sample)**
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count6##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA7, title((A7))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count6##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA8, title((A8))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count3##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA9, title((A9))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count3##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA10, title((A10))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.l.usmeeting##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA11, title((A11))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.l.usmeeting##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA12, title((A12))
estout MODELA7 MODELA8 MODELA9 MODELA10 MODELA11 MODELA12, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label,  using "TABLEA3.tex", replace style(tex)


**TABLE A4: Alternate Constructions of ln(U.S. Meetings) Variable (No OECD)**
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count6##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA13, title((A13))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count6##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA14, title((A14))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count3##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA15, title((A15))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count3##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA16, title((A16))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.l.usmeeting##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA17, title((A17))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.l.usmeeting##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA18, title((A18))
estout MODELA13 MODELA14 MODELA15 MODELA16 MODELA17 MODELA18, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label,  using "TABLEA4.tex", replace style(tex)


**TABLE A5: Different Measures of Global Capital Market Liquidity (Full Sample)**
global base_controls "indefault l12.lngdppc l12.ca_gdp l12.gdp_growth xr_change l12.debtgdp l12.imf_inplace l12.v2x_polyarchy l12.leftwing_exec_mo l12.rightwing_exec_mo election_3mo l12.ln_totalustrade l12.natrent l12.usally l12.pctagreeus  issue_region"
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.germany10yri $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA19, title((A19))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.germany10yri $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA20, title((A20))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.japan10yri $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA21, title((A21))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.japan10yri $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA22, title((A22))
estout MODELA19 MODELA20 MODELA21 MODELA22, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label, using "TABLEA5.tex", replace style(tex)


**TABLE A6: Different Measures of Global Capital Market Liquidity (No OECD)**
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.germany10yri $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA23, title((A23))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.germany10yri $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA24, title((A24))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.japan10yri $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA25, title((A25))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.japan10yri $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA26, title((A26))
estout MODELA23 MODELA24 MODELA25 MODELA26, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label,  using "TABLEA6.tex", replace style(tex)


**TABLE A7: Diplomacy and Sovereign Bond Issuance (U.S. Meetings Not Logged)**
global base_controls "l12.treasury10yr indefault l12.lngdppc l12.ca_gdp l12.gdp_growth xr_change l12.debtgdp l12.imf_inplace l12.v2x_polyarchy l12.leftwing_exec_mo l12.rightwing_exec_mo election_3mo l12.ln_totalustrade l12.natrent l12.usally l12.pctagreeus  issue_region"
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.usmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA27, title((A27))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.usmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA28, title((A28))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.usmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA29, title((A29))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.usmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA30, title((A30))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT l.log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.usmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA31, title((A31))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT l.log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.usmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA32, title((A32))
estout MODELA27 MODELA28 MODELA29 MODELA30 MODELA31 MODELA32, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label,  using "TABLEA7.tex", replace style(tex)


**TABLE A8: Controlling for Interactions with Political and Risk Variables**
global base_controls "c.indefault c.l12.lngdppc c.l12.ca_gdp c.l12.gdp_growth c.xr_change c.l12.debtgdp l12.imf_inplace c.l12.v2x_polyarchy##c.l12.treasury10yr c.l12.leftwing_exec_mo##c.l12.treasury10yr c.l12.rightwing_exec_mo##c.l12.treasury10yr c.election_3mo##c.l12.treasury10yr c.l12.ln_totalustrade c.l12.natrent c.l12.usally c.l12.pctagreeus c.issue_region"
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA33, title((A33))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA34, title((A34))
global base_controls "c.indefault##c.l12.treasury10yr c.l12.lngdppc##c.l12.treasury10yr c.l12.ca_gdp##c.l12.treasury10yr c.l12.gdp_growth##c.l12.treasury10yr c.xr_change##c.l12.treasury10yr c.l12.debtgdp##c.l12.treasury10yr c.l12.imf_inplace##c.l12.treasury10yr c.l12.v2x_polyarchy##c.l12.treasury10yr c.l12.leftwing_exec_mo##c.l12.treasury10yr c.l12.rightwing_exec_mo##c.l12.treasury10yr c.election_3mo##c.l12.treasury10yr c.l12.ln_totalustrade c.l12.natrent c.l12.usally c.l12.pctagreeus c.issue_region"
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA35, title((A35))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA36, title((A36))
estout MODELA33 MODELA34 MODELA35 MODELA36, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label,  using "TABLEA8.tex", replace style(tex)


**TABLE A9: Controlling for U.S. Bank Exposure**
global base_controls "l12.treasury10yr indefault l12.lngdppc l12.ca_gdp l12.gdp_growth xr_change l12.debtgdp l12.imf_inplace l12.v2x_polyarchy l12.leftwing_exec_mo l12.rightwing_exec_mo election_3mo l12.ln_totalustrade l12.natrent l12.usally l12.pctagreeus issue_region"
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls ln_bank_us, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA37, title((A37))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls ln_bank_us if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA38, title((A38))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls ln_bank_us, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA39, title((A39))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls ln_bank_us if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA40, title((A40))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT l.log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls ln_bank_us, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA41, title((A41))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT l.log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls ln_bank_us if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA42, title((A42))
estout MODELA37 MODELA38 MODELA39 MODELA40 MODELA41 MODELA42, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label,  using "TABLEA9.tex", replace style(tex)


**TABLE A10: Controlling for EMBIG Bond Index (Non-OECD Countries, 1993-2016)**
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls embig_dummy if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA43, title((A43))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls embig_dummy if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA44, title((A44))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if embig_dummy==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA45, title((A45))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if embig_dummy==1, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA46, title((A46))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if embig_dummy==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA47, title((A47))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if embig_dummy==1, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA48, title((A48))
estout MODELA43 MODELA44 MODELA45 MODELA46 MODELA47 MODELA48, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label,  using "TABLEA10.tex", replace style(tex)


**TABLE A11: Controlling for Default Risk and CRA Ratings**
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls hasRating, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA49, title((A49))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls hasRating if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA50, title((A50))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls hasRating, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA51, title((A51))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls hasRating if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA52, title((A52))
estout MODELA49 MODELA50 MODELA51 MODELA52, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label,  using "TABLEA11.tex", replace style(tex)


**TABLE A12: Controlling for Default Risk and CRA Ratingss (Cont'd)**
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls avgRating, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA53, title((A53))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls avgRating if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA54, title((A54))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls avgRating, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA55, title((A55))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls avgRating if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA56, title((A56))
estout MODELA53 MODELA54 MODELA55 MODELA56, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label,  using "TABLEA12.tex", replace style(tex)


**TABLE A13: Predictors of Credit Ratings**
reg avgRating indefault l12.v2x_polyarchy l12.lngdppc l12.ca_gdp l12.gdp_growth xr_change l12.debtgdp l12.imf_inplace l12.reserves l12.fiscal_balance l12.inflation_annual
estimates store MODELA57, title((A57))
estout MODELA57, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label,  using "TABLEA13.tex", replace style(tex)


**TABLE A14: Additional Robustness Checks**
global base_controls "l12.treasury10yr indefault l12.lngdppc l12.ca_gdp l12.gdp_growth xr_change l12.debtgdp l12.imf_inplace l12.reserves l12.fiscal_balance l12.inflation_annual l12.v2x_polyarchy l12.leftwing_exec_mo l12.rightwing_exec_mo election_3mo l12.ln_totalustrade l12.natrent l12.usally l12.pctagreeus  issue_region"
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA58, title((A58))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA59, title((A59))
estout MODELA58 MODELA59, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label,  using "TABLEA14.tex", replace style(tex)


**TABLE A15: Diplomacy and Term to Maturity**
global base_controls "l12.treasury10yr indefault l12.lngdppc l12.ca_gdp l12.gdp_growth xr_change l12.debtgdp l12.imf_inplace l12.v2x_polyarchy l12.leftwing_exec_mo l12.rightwing_exec_mo election_3mo l12.ln_totalustrade l12.natrent l12.usally l12.pctagreeus  issue_region"
reg maturity_avg_mo l.maturity_avg_mo $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count  $base_controls if bondsIssued>0, vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA60, title((A60))
reg maturity_avg_mo l.maturity_avg_mo $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count  $base_controls if bondsIssued>0 & oecd==0, vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA61, title((A61))
reg maturity_avg_mo l.maturity_avg_mo i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count  $base_controls if bondsIssued>0, vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA62, title((A62))
reg maturity_avg_mo l.maturity_avg_mo i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count  $base_controls if bondsIssued>0 & oecd==0, vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA63, title((A63))
estout MODELA60 MODELA61 MODELA62 MODELA63, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label,  using "TABLEA15.tex", replace style(tex)


**TABLE A16: Diplomacy and Domestic Currency Issuance**
reg propDom_gt1yr $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count  $base_controls, vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA64, title((A64))
reg propDom_gt1yr $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count  $base_controls if oecd==0, vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA65, title((A65))
reg propDom_gt1yr i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count  $base_controls, vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA66, title((A66))
reg propDom_gt1yr i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count  $base_controls if oecd==0, vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA67, title((A67))
estout MODELA64 MODELA65 MODELA66 MODELA67, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label,  using "TABLEA16.tex", replace style(tex)


**TABLE A17: Effects of Western Ties Conditional on Global Liquidity and U.S. Affinity**
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr##c.l12.pctagreeus $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA68, title((A68))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr##c.l12.pctagreeus $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA69, title((A69))
estout MODELA68 MODELA69, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label,  using "TABLEA17.tex", replace style(tex)


**TABLE A18: Diplomacy with Other Major Powers (Full Sample)**
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.l12.LOR_us##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA70, title((A70))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.l12.LOR_uk##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA71, title((A71))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.l12.LOR_china##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA72, title((A72))
estout MODELA70 MODELA71 MODELA72, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label,  using "TABLEA18.tex", replace style(tex)


**TABLE A19: Diplomacy with Other Major Powers (Non-OECD)**
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.l12.LOR_us##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA73, title((A73))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.l12.LOR_uk##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA74, title((A74))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.l12.LOR_china##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA75, title((A75))
estout MODELA73 MODELA74 MODELA75, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label,  using "TABLEA19.tex", replace style(tex)


**TABLE A20: Distinguishing Between Presidential and TSY Meetings**
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.ln_tsymeeting_12mo##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA76, title((A76))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.ln_tsymeeting_12mo##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA77, title((A77))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.ln_tsymeeting_12mo##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA78, title((A78))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.ln_tsymeeting_12mo##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA79, title((A79))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.ln_presmeeting_12mo##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA80, title((A80))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.ln_presmeeting_12mo##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA81, title((A81))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.ln_presmeeting_12mo##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA82, title((A82))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.ln_presmeeting_12mo##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA83, title((A83))
estout MODELA76 MODELA77 MODELA78 MODELA79 MODELA80 MODELA81 MODELA82 MODELA83, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label,  using "TABLEA20.tex", replace style(tex)


**TABLE A21: Ratio of Bond Issuance Over Total Public Finance**
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls ln_total_official, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA84, title((A84))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls ln_total_official i.ccode, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA85, title((A85))
tobit totalAmt_UT_ratio $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA86, title((A86))
tobit totalAmt_UT_ratio $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls i.ccode, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA87, title((A87))
estout MODELA84 MODELA85 MODELA86 MODELA87, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label,  using "TABLEA21.tex", replace style(tex)


**TABLE A22: Foreign U.S. TSY Meetings**
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.l.tsy_foreignmeet##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA88, title((A88))
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.l.tsy_foreignmeet##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls i.ccode, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA89, title((A89))
estout MODELA88 MODELA89, cells(b(star fmt(3)) se(par fmt(3))) starlevels($^{+}$ 0.10 $^{*}$ 0.05 $^{**}$ 0.01 $^{***}$ 0.001) stats(N, fmt(0) label(Observations)) label,  using "TABLEA22.tex", replace style(tex)


***********************************************
********************FIGURES********************
***********************************************

use "Connell (II) Dataset.dta", clear
xtset ccode time
global temporal "i.year i.month"
global base_controls "l12.treasury10yr indefault l12.lngdppc l12.ca_gdp l12.gdp_growth xr_change l12.debtgdp l12.imf_inplace l12.v2x_polyarchy l12.leftwing_exec_mo l12.rightwing_exec_mo election_3mo l12.ln_totalustrade l12.natrent l12.usally l12.pctagreeus  issue_region"

**FIGURE A1: Alternative Constructions of ln(U.S. Meetings) Variable (Full Sample)**
//A
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count6##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count6==(0(0.25)1.75) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count6==(0(0.25)1.75) c.l12.treasury10yr==4.55) at(c.lnusmeetings_count6==(0(0.25)1.75) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)1.75) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel(0(4)16) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings) - 6 Month) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
//B
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count6##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count6==(0(0.25)1.75) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count6==(0(0.25)1.75) c.l12.treasury10yr==4.55) at(c.lnusmeetings_count6==(0(0.25)1.75) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)1.75) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel(0(4)16) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings) - 6 Month) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
//C
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count3##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count3==(0(0.25)1.25) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count3==(0(0.25)1.25) c.l12.treasury10yr==(4.55)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count3==(0(0.25)1.25) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)1.25) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel(0(4)16) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings) - 3 Month) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
//D
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count3##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count3==(0(0.25)1.25) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count3==(0(0.25)1.25) c.l12.treasury10yr==(4.55)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count3==(0(0.25)1.25) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)1.25) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel(0(4)16) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings) - 3 Month) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
//E
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.l.usmeeting##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.l.usmeeting==(0(1)1) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.l.usmeeting==(0(1)1) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(1)1) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel() recast(line) recastci(rcap) xtitle("") title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(msymbol(circle) msize(large) mcolor(black) lcolor(black) lpattern(longdash)) plot2opts(msymbol(diamond) mcolor(black) lcolor(black) lpattern(dash)) level(95)
//F
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.l.usmeeting##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.l.usmeeting==(0(1)1) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.l.usmeeting==(0(1)1) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(1)1) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel() recast(line) recastci(rcap) xtitle("") title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(msymbol(circle) msize(large) mcolor(black) lcolor(black) lpattern(longdash)) plot2opts(msymbol(diamond) mcolor(black) lcolor(black) lpattern(dash)) level(95)


**FIGURE A2: Alternative Constructions of ln(U.S. Meetings) Variable (No OECD)**
//A
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count6##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count6==(0(0.25)1.75) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count6==(0(0.25)1.75) c.l12.treasury10yr==4.55) at(c.lnusmeetings_count6==(0(0.25)1.75) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)1.75) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel(0(4)16) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings) - 6 Month) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
//B
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count6##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count6==(0(0.25)1.75) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count6==(0(0.25)1.75) c.l12.treasury10yr==4.55) at(c.lnusmeetings_count6==(0(0.25)1.75) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)1.75) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel(0(4)16) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings) - 6 Month) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
//C
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count3##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count3==(0(0.25)1.25) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count3==(0(0.25)1.25) c.l12.treasury10yr==(4.55)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count3==(0(0.25)1.25) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)1.25) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel(0(4)16) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings) - 3 Month) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
//D
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count3##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count3==(0(0.25)1.25) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count3==(0(0.25)1.25) c.l12.treasury10yr==(4.55)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count3==(0(0.25)1.25) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)1.25) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel(0(4)16) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings) - 3 Month) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
//E
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.l.usmeeting##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.l.usmeeting==(0(1)1) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.l.usmeeting==(0(1)1) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(1)1) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel() recast(line) recastci(rcap) xtitle("") title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(msymbol(circle) msize(large) mcolor(black) lcolor(black) lpattern(longdash)) plot2opts(msymbol(diamond) mcolor(black) lcolor(black) lpattern(dash)) level(95)
//F
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.l.usmeeting##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.l.usmeeting==(0(1)1) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.l.usmeeting==(0(1)1) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(1)1) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel() recast(line) recastci(rcap) xtitle("") title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(msymbol(circle) msize(large) mcolor(black) lcolor(black) lpattern(longdash)) plot2opts(msymbol(diamond) mcolor(black) lcolor(black) lpattern(dash)) level(95)


**FIGURE A3: Different Measures of Global Capital Market Liquidity (Full Sample)**
global base_controls "indefault l12.lngdppc l12.ca_gdp l12.gdp_growth xr_change l12.debtgdp l12.imf_inplace l12.v2x_polyarchy l12.leftwing_exec_mo l12.rightwing_exec_mo election_3mo l12.ln_totalustrade l12.natrent l12.usally l12.pctagreeus  issue_region"
**A
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.germany10yri $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.germany10yri==(1.34)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.germany10yri==(4)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.germany10yri==6.6) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)2) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel() recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings)) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
**B
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.germany10yri $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.germany10yri==(1.34)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.germany10yri==(4)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.germany10yri==6.6) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)2) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel() recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings)) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
**C
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.japan10yri $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.japan10yri==(.59)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.japan10yri==(1.78)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.japan10yri==3.76) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)2) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel() recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings)) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
**D
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.japan10yri $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.japan10yri==(.59)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.japan10yri==(1.78)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.japan10yri==3.76) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)2) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel() recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings)) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)


**FIGURE A4: Different Measures of Global Capital Market Liquidity (No OECD)**
global base_controls "indefault l12.lngdppc l12.ca_gdp l12.gdp_growth xr_change l12.debtgdp l12.imf_inplace l12.v2x_polyarchy l12.leftwing_exec_mo l12.rightwing_exec_mo election_3mo l12.ln_totalustrade l12.natrent l12.usally l12.pctagreeus  issue_region"
**A
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.germany10yri $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.germany10yri==(1.34)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.germany10yri==(4)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.germany10yri==6.6) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)2) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel() recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings)) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
**B
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.germany10yri $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.germany10yri==(1.34)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.germany10yri==(4)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.germany10yri==6.6) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)2) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel() recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings)) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
**C
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.japan10yri $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.japan10yri==(.59)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.japan10yri==(1.78)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.japan10yri==3.76) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)2) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel() recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings)) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
**D
qui tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.japan10yri $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.japan10yri==(.59)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.japan10yri==(1.78)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.japan10yri==3.76) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)2) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel() recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings)) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)


**FIGURE A5: Marginal Effects of Diplomatic Recognition Conditional on Global Liquidity (No OECD)**
global base_controls "l12.treasury10yr indefault l12.lngdppc l12.ca_gdp l12.gdp_growth xr_change l12.debtgdp l12.imf_inplace l12.v2x_polyarchy l12.leftwing_exec_mo l12.rightwing_exec_mo election_3mo l12.ln_totalustrade l12.natrent l12.usally l12.pctagreeus  issue_region"
**A
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.l12.LOR_us##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, dydx(l12.LOR_us) at(l12.treasury10yr==(1.5(0.5)9)) atmean
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) addplot(hist treasury10yr, yaxis(2) xscale(range(1.5(1)9)) xlabel(1.5(1)9) yscale(axis(2) range(0 .75) off) lc(white%0) fcolor(gs10%25) recast(rbar)) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ciopts(fc(emidblue%30) lc(white%0)) xtitle(Treasury Rate) title("") yscale(range(-20(20)60)) ylabel(-20(20)60) ytitle(Marginal Effect of LOR (US)) legend(off) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) yline(0)
**B
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.l12.LOR_uk##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, dydx(l12.LOR_uk) at(l12.treasury10yr==(1.5(0.5)9)) atmean
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) addplot(hist treasury10yr, yaxis(2) xscale(range(1.5(1)9)) xlabel(1.5(1)9) yscale(axis(2) range(0 .75) off) lc(white%0) fcolor(gs10%25) recast(rbar)) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ciopts(fc(emidblue%30) lc(white%0)) xtitle(Treasury Rate) title("") yscale(range(-20(20)60)) ylabel(-20(20)60) ytitle(Marginal Effect of LOR (UK)) legend(off) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) yline(0)
**C
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.l12.LOR_china##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, dydx(l12.LOR_chi) at(l12.treasury10yr==(1.5(0.5)9)) atmean
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) addplot(hist treasury10yr, yaxis(2) xscale(range(1.5(1)9)) xlabel(1.5(1)9) yscale(axis(2) range(0 .75) off) lc(white%0) fcolor(gs10%25) recast(rbar)) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ciopts(fc(emidblue%30) lc(white%0)) xtitle(Treasury Rate) title("") yscale(range(-20(20)60)) ylabel(-20(20)60) ytitle(Marginal Effect of LOR (China)) legend(off) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) yline(0)


**FIGURE A6: Predicted Amounts of Debt Issuance (Controlling for Rated by CRA)**
global base_controls "l12.treasury10yr indefault l12.lngdppc l12.ca_gdp l12.gdp_growth xr_change l12.debtgdp l12.imf_inplace l12.v2x_polyarchy l12.leftwing_exec_mo l12.rightwing_exec_mo election_3mo l12.ln_totalustrade l12.natrent l12.usally l12.pctagreeus  issue_region"
**A
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls hasRating, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==4.55) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)2) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel(0(4)16) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings)) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
**B
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls hasRating if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==4.55) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)2) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel(0(4)16) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings)) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
**C
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls hasRating, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==4.55) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)2) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel(0(4)16) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings)) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)
**D
tobit log_totalAmt_UT i.ccode $temporal c.lnusmeetings_count##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls hasRating if oecd==0, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==4.55) at(c.lnusmeetings_count==(0(0.25)2) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(0.25)2) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel(0(4)16) recast(line) recastci(rarea) ci3opts(fc(black%80) lc(white%0)) ci2opts(fc(gs5%80) lc(white%0)) ci1opts(fc(gs12%80) lc(white%0)) xtitle(ln(U.S. Meetings)) title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(lcolor(gs12) lpattern(dash)) plot2opts(lcolor(gs5) lpattern(longdash)) plot3opts(lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) level(95)


**FIGURE A7: Predicted Amounts of Debt Issuance (Foreign TSY Meetings)**
**A
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.l.tsy_foreignmeet##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls, ll vce(cluster ccode)
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.l.tsy_foreignmeet==(0(1)1) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.l.tsy_foreignmeet==(0(1)1) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(1)1) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel() recast(line) recastci(rcap) xtitle("") title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(msymbol(circle) msize(large) mcolor(black) lcolor(black) lpattern(longdash)) plot2opts(msymbol(diamond) mcolor(black) lcolor(black) lpattern(dash)) level(95)
**B
tobit log_totalAmt_UT $temporal c.l.tsy_foreignmeet##c.l12.treasury10yr $base_controls i.ccode, ll vce(cluster ccode)
estimates store MODELA89, title((A89))
margins, predict(ystar(0,.)) at(c.l.tsy_foreignmeet==(0(1)1) c.l12.treasury10yr==(2.07)) at(c.l.tsy_foreignmeet==(0(1)1) c.l12.treasury10yr==7.34) atmean level(95)
marginsplot, xsize(10) ysize(9) xlabel(0(1)1) yscale(range(0(.1).6)) ylabel() recast(line) recastci(rcap) xtitle("") title("") ytitle(Predicted Debt Issued (log)) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white)) plot1opts(msymbol(circle) msize(large) mcolor(black) lcolor(black) lpattern(longdash)) plot2opts(msymbol(diamond) mcolor(black) lcolor(black) lpattern(dash)) level(95)

**FIGURE A8: Average Annual Meetings with the U.S. President and TSY (2001-2016)**
use "Map.dta", clear
spmap meetingavg01_16 using mercatorcoord if country!="Antarctica", id(ID) clmethod(custom) clbreak(0 .5 1 2 3 4 5 7) osize(vvthin vvthin vvthin vvthin vvthin vvthin vvthin vvthin vvthin) ndsize(vvthin) ndfcolor(white) ndo(black) fcolor(Greys2) legend(size(normal) label(2 "0") label(3 "0.01-1") label(4 "1.01-2") label(5 "2.01-3") label(6 "3.01-4") label(7 "4.01-5") label(8 ">5"))

**FIGURE A9: An Illustrative Comparison of USED Data and COW Data in Iraq (1999-2008)**
use "Connell (II) Dataset.dta", clear
qui twoway (line de_carryforward time, sort lcolor(black) lpattern(shortdash)) (line usmeetings_count time, ytitle("Diplomacy with U.S.") xtitle("") title("") graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white) lwidth(thick) lpattern(solid)) legend(region(lcolor(%0))) sort lcolor(black)) (bar log_totalAmt_UT time, sort yaxis(2) fcolor(navy%50) lcolor(white%0)) if ccode==645 & year<2009 & year>1999


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